by Yannis Stournaras
Central bankers have encountered significant challenges over the past 15 years: a global financial turmoil, the euro area sovereign debt crisis, a prolonged period of very-low inflation, the pandemic, and the outbreak of geopolitical crises along with a series of supply-side shocks. Each of these developments has impacted on inflation and economic activity. Each has done so in a different way. In the following remarks, I argue that the monetary policy measures adopted by the ECB during that period — including the lowering of the policy rate to negative levels for a period of 8 years — managed to support a sustained progress towards price stability, ensuring at the same time financial stability, and supporting economic welfare. That said, there were difficult trade-offs to manage. Over time, low rates and non-standard monetary policy measures may lead to excessive leverage and cause short-term dislocations in financial markets. In addition, as we have recently seen, a pivot in the monetary policy stance to combat higher inflation, can cause losses to central banks because they have to remunerate their liabilities at higher interest rates, while their assets have locked in low yields. Do these losses impair the ability of central banks to apply their preferred monetary policy rules? Do they compromise their independence? I argue they do not.
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