by Michel Klompmaker
We have decided to publish a series of articles entitled “Lockdown or Knock-out?” on this platform. We will discuss and comment on the current measures taken by the various governments, economic forecasts from experts and expectations of politicians from the perspective of risk & compliance. We are just going to start and as long as there is no vaccine for the coronavirus, we will regularly discuss the issues that are worthwhile. Today we start with the recent news about lending to business customers in the Netherlands. On the one hand, we see a decrease in the number of infections and deaths, but what does this actually mean for the economy if we put it in a somewhat broader perspective? Is there reason for optimism? We would like to spread the optimistic sound, but we cannot ignore the facts and that they are not good. Did circumstances leave no other choice or have the banks and the responsible minister switched to a form of Russian roulette? ING announced yesterday that it expects to triple the number of bankruptcies in the Netherlands next year. And in the meantime, since the outbreak of the corona crisis, the Dutch banking sector has provided additional credit of around EUR 14 billion. As a result, the percentage of gross national product corporate debt (IMF source) has risen again to over 150 percent. For the critical down-to-earth reviews, who like to make dismissive statements about the financial policy of the so called “garlic countries”: Italian corporate debts are in percentage at over 60 percent of the gross national product. Continue reading…