by Olaf Sleijpen
One of the more fascinating concepts covered in economics courses is ‘ceteris paribus’ – Latin for ‘all other things being equal’. This concept allows us to investigate the causal and independent relationship between two variables, while all other variables remain unchanged. For instance, the relationship between interest rates and inflation. And so, ‘ceteris paribus’ offers a very simplified way to illustrate the core workings of a central bank. Or in central bank Latin, all other things considered equal, raising interest rates will lower inflation. And so, in theory, it is pretty straightforward how our primary policy tool helps to reach our primary objective – an inflation rate of around two percent in the medium term. This kind of central bank independence – the ‘ceteris paribus’ kind – does not exist outside the realm of theory, of course. The real world – the world central banks actually work in – is instead characterised by ‘mutatis mutandis’. Meaning that changing one variable will affect several others, and not per se only the one you wanted to affect. And meaning that this works both ways. And with a multitude of variables simultaneously. Hence, to achieve our primary objective, we are dependent on an ever-changing world. Sometimes things go well. At other times, risks arise that we need to carefully monitor. Continue reading…
